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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132282
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 9:51am | IP Logged | 1
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It's just started to snow, outside my Studio windows. This is the first time in about ten weeks that the weather services have predicted snow and it's actually happened.One of the ways I fill my empty hours is to check the weather app. on my iPhone. I find it so amusing to see the predictions alter as the days drop away. When Wednesday is five days off, for instance, there's a BIG snowflake icon. At four days, a lot of little snowflake icons. At three, rain. At two, clouds. And when Wednesday becomes today, sunny! They've been threatening that this will be a pretty major snowfall -- 8"-12". We'll see!!
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J W Campbell
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 June 2012
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 353
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 10:09am | IP Logged | 2
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Can't google up a reference immediately, but a friend of mind who is (in large part) a statistician told me that if you run two sets of weather forecasts, one of which is an actual meteorological forecast whilst the other simply predicts that the weather today will be same as it was yesterday, the same-as-yesterday one proves more accurate by a substantial margin.
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James Woodcock
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 21 September 2007
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 7616
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 10:41am | IP Logged | 3
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I've heard that a few times as well but not seen any empirical data.
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Peter Hicks
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 1891
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 12:22pm | IP Logged | 4
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University of Ottawa geography students tracked Environment Canada's 5 day forecast for a year, focusing on the accuracy of the 5th day. What the weather service predicted would happen in 5 days was only correct 30% of the time, ie., whatever the 5th day forecast stated was more likely than not to be exactly what the weather would NOT be like.
When these findings were presented to Environment Canada, they sheepishly admitted they had spent millions on software to predict the 5th day. The software was a failure, and they knew it, but having spent the money, they felt obligated to share the results!
Anyways, I have found the 3 day forecast is about all they seem to be able to do with accuracy.
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Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 12438
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 12:37pm | IP Logged | 5
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I have been skeptical of this snow all week long precisely because STORM WATCH! has become such standard non-news NEWS...!!! Blaring non-news!
1-3 inches was supposed to hit my area of Long Island. So far... rain.. some sleet. Nothing sticking, even remotely.
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Andy Meyers
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 05 August 2014
Location: United States
Posts: 567
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 12:38pm | IP Logged | 6
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Peter,
Fascinating information. Here in Central NY following weather reports is an obsession and, like you wrote, outside of three days it is a total guessing game. I have also noticed the weather has a tendency to slide into the next day. For example, if they say it will get warmer or colder, it is delayed to the next day. Local TV stations have a tendency to put a weather scroll on TV to keep the viewers watching for advisories and warnings that rarely lead to anything.
With the exception of this year we get more snow than Buffalo. I am curious if the weather reporters were accurate about their storm (and I'm off to find out).
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Robert LaGuardia
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 15 November 2007
Location: United States
Posts: 1296
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 12:45pm | IP Logged | 7
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Discussions about weather forcasts bring to mind the episode of Curb
Your Enthusiasm where the weatherman would predict rain on a day he
knew would be sunny just so he could have the golf course to himself.
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Carmen Bernardo
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 08 August 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 3666
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 4:38pm | IP Logged | 8
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My area forecast went from 1-3 inches by nightfall to 1-2 inches starting after changing over by 3pm. The weather didn't cooperate. It started snowing hard after changing around 10-10:30am, did one flash of lightning at the height of the snowstorm around 11:20, then changed back to all rain with some intermittent sleet mixed in by Noon. Hardly anything laying, though we have a thin coating a very wet slush on elevated surfaces and grass.
Weather forecasting. The only job where you're wrong 70% of the time and still get to keep working.
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William Roberge
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 05 July 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 11292
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 6:04pm | IP Logged | 9
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Thanks to the heavy wet snow the power is out. I am so glad we bought a generator!
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Phil Kreisel
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 03 February 2006
Location: Canada
Posts: 1911
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| Posted: 26 November 2014 at 6:20pm | IP Logged | 10
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Major snowstorm warning out for us up in Edmonton (and for most of the province). Taking work home with me on a USB stick just in case. My work (of which I have to travel to) does give me the option to work at home when the weather conditions are bad. Always good to take precautions.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132282
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| Posted: 27 November 2014 at 5:59am | IP Logged | 11
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Final tally: less than an inch of snow!
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Ed Fahey
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 07 March 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 277
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| Posted: 27 November 2014 at 8:28am | IP Logged | 12
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You lucked out JB - we got 20" of snow and no power. For once the storm hype lived up to the reality!
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