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Rick Whiting
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 22 April 2004
Posts: 2188
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| Posted: 18 December 2014 at 11:50pm | IP Logged | 1
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If Rocket Raccoon #1 can sell 300,000 copies on the strength of one movie, it's not hard to fathom Star Wars selling at least four or five times that with the full Disney machine backing it.
If Star Wars were released with one lone cover, I'm sure it would still be ordered somewhere in the neighborhood of a million copies. We don't know what the actual numbers are yet, either, just that it's north of a million several months before the comic hits stores.
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Like Stephen has pointed out, one of the reasons why Rocket Racoon #1 sold 300,000 copies was because of Loot Crate. The other reason why the book sold that well was because it had a few rare variant covers that required retailers to order a certain amount of copies (usually more then they normally would have ordered) of the regular cover in order to get the rare variants.
And the chances of pre-order sales for Star Wars #1 reaching a million copies without all of those variant covers (rumor has it that Marvel will be putting out 100 variant covers for the first issue) are slim to none.
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Andrew W. Farago
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 19 July 2005
Location: United States
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 1:18am | IP Logged | 2
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And the chances of pre-order sales for Star Wars #1 reaching a million copies without all of those variant covers (rumor has it that Marvel will be putting out 100 variant covers for the first issue) are slim to none.
With the comic showing up in Disney stores, or hobby shops, or in other venues apart from comic shops? Featuring one of the most popular media properties in the world, backed by the biggest entertainment company in the world? With some of Marvel's most popular creators on the book? How many copies would this have to sell for people to be impressed? Does it need to move eight million copies for people to see it as a legitimate million-seller? Are comic shops actually going to buy a thousand unsellable copies so that they can get a few Alex Ross variant covers that they'll be able to sell for ten bucks each?
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132303
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 4:35am | IP Logged | 3
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A lot of otherwise intelligent people think they could make a fortune selling their comic book collection. Where's the market? Generations of "collectors" keeping their comics in "mint" condition, so neither the books nor their condition is "rare." It's like everyone forgot how supply and demand work.••• Reading comics has often been used, in other media, as shorthand for diminished intellectual capacity. Dummies read comics. But the real display of idiocy lies with the speculators. It's not often we can point to such a precise genesis, but the speculator market was born almost forty years ago when THE WALL STREET JOURNAL reported on the sale at auction of a copy of MARVEL COMICS 1 for $20,000. Based on an initial expenditure of 10¢, this was declared to make comics a better investment than gold. Of course, the vital detail that was missed was that the seller of that copy of MC1 had not bought it fresh off the rack for a dime. And with the failure to do that bit of math, the speculator market was born.
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Rick Whiting
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 22 April 2004
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 9:55am | IP Logged | 4
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With the comic showing up in Disney stores, or hobby shops, or in other venues apart from comic shops?
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How do you know that those books are going to be sold in Disney Stores and other venues? Hell, I don't even think that regular Marvel comics are being sold in the Disney Stores, but I could be wrong.
Featuring one of the most popular media properties in the world, backed by the biggest entertainment company in the world?
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Which is not a guarantee that book will sell really well in stores.
With some of Marvel's most popular creators on the book?
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"Popular" to who? The existing shrinking comic book readership or to the even smaller and more vocal online comic book fans? Most (if not all) of those non comic book readers who you think will buy this book don't know and don't care who any of those "popular" creators are? And just because the existing comic book fan base might enjoy the work of those "popular" creators doesn't mean that civilians will enjoy their work. I would also like to point out that all of those so called "popular" creators working on those books have had their fair share of sales flops over the last several years.
How many copies would this have to sell for people to be impressed? Does it need to move eight million copies for people to see it as a legitimate million-seller?
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Sell a million copies to a million individual actual walk in store customers who are actually interested in reading the book and not because they think that the book will pay for their kids college funds in the future.
Are comic shops actually going to buy a thousand unsellable copies so that they can get a few Alex Ross variant covers that they'll be able to sell for ten bucks each?
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Yes, there are a number of comic shops that will do that. And FYI, depending on how rare the variant is, they could charge between $75 to $100 for those variants.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 9:58am | IP Logged | 5
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I don't even think that regular Marvel comics are being sold in the Disney Stores, but I could be wrong.•• Hard to imagine this... 
...in a Disney Store!
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Michael Casselman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 14 January 2006
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 1:17pm | IP Logged | 6
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The Disney store at the Destiny shopping center in Syracuse NY has plenty of action figures and other assorted Marvel-centric items, but it's not a very wide selection, and they're relatively 'hidden' or off to the side of the store compared to the main Mickey, Minnie, Donald, etc. merchandise. And not a single comic to be seen.
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Andrew W. Farago
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Joined: 19 July 2005
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 1:49pm | IP Logged | 7
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I realize that the people on this forum may or may not be the "typical" comic buyer, but do we have any variant cover buyers reading this thread? I only ever buy the standard, regular-priced cover of a book when I've got the option, and can't see myself paying twice-cover or more even if it's a favorite artist of mine tackling the cover art. My local comic shops do get variant covers, but they generally get them for reaching the same ordering thresholds they would if there weren't a variant cover incentive.
Star Wars has so many variant covers that it's really impossible to gauge how many copies a single cover would have sold, but we can probably get a ballpark figure. The Obama Spider-Man cover sold 500,000 copies, but tons of those were from one-time buyers, speculators, and people who were scooping up anything Obama-related they could get during his inauguration week. Rocket Raccoon sold 200,000-ish copies to the Direct Market, and there have been multiple reprints of issue 1 since the summer. Amazing Spider-Man #700 and Superior Spider-Man #1 sold in giant amounts, and most really-hyped Marvel or DC event books have been able to sell 100-200,000 copies. Walking Dead #100 sold about 300,000 copies, I think, making it one of the biggest indie books of all time.
Any guesses on how much of the print run you'd have to subtract from Star Wars to get an accurate gauge on the demand? Maybe one-third of the print run? One-half?
Either way, I'm buying my lone copy at my local comic shop, picking out whatever cover's on the shelf and catches my eye, and that's that. Maybe an extra copy to send to my brother.
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Phil Southern
Byrne Robotics Member
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 1:53pm | IP Logged | 8
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The reported 1,000,000 print run for this comic is artificial, and is not a reflection of reader's demand for this book.
I am 92.375% certain that the 59 covers that have been produced are, for the most part, specifically produced for retailers who have ordered a high number of copies. They did the same for Amazing Spider-man 666:
For example, if Jimmy's Comics orders 1000 (or 5000, or whatever) copies, they can have their own specially designed cover placed on the book, undoubtedly with the Jimmy's Comics logo emblazoned all over it. The threshold for this is high, and at least 59 stores have done so.
The million copy level in this case is unremarkable, and we'll know more about the real demand by issue 4. My Guess: 45,000-50,000.
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Rick Whiting
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 22 April 2004
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 3:34pm | IP Logged | 9
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This article might give some of you who are not retailers some insight into how and why some retailers might order these Star Wars #1.
http://www.bleedingcool.com/2014/12/19/the-comics-economics- of-star-wars-1/
http://www.bleedingcool.com/2014/12/19/the-comics-economics- of-star-wars-1/
Edited by Rick Whiting on 19 December 2014 at 3:35pm
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Matt Hawes
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Joined: 16 April 2004
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 3:40pm | IP Logged | 10
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Here's the link Rick posted, fixed.
Edited by Matt Hawes on 19 December 2014 at 3:41pm
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Andrew W. Farago
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 4:26pm | IP Logged | 11
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Who the hell pays $400 for a new issue of a monthly comic? I guess I've been more or less oblivious to the variant cover crowd, since I don't know anyone who buys them. Shops have to treat those guys like bonuses/outliers, right? No way your business plan can count on them coming to your shop month-in, month-out.
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Rick Whiting
Byrne Robotics Member
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| Posted: 19 December 2014 at 6:31pm | IP Logged | 12
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Who the hell pays $400 for a new issue of a monthly comic?
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Speculators and completist. And this is why a number of (not all) retailers order so many of the regular covers of those comics. The allure of charging (and in some cases, getting idiots to pay for it) an over inflated price for those worthless variants is to great to resist for a number of retailers.
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Topic Closed)
