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Vinny Valenti
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 8030
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 9:37am | IP Logged | 1
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New York State hasn't gone to a Republican since Reagan '84. Trump doesn't have anywhere near the cross-party appeal that Reagan had, so it's very likely safe for me to just sit this one out as I have done in the past.
But this time I'm not going to. I really hate the fact that I have to vote for Clinton but I'm at the point where not only does Trump need to lose the popular vote, he needs to lose spectacularly, even though it's all about the electoral vote in the end. Anything to dissuade him from attempting this again in 2020, or any other GOPer from giving him serious consideration in the future.
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Joe Zhang
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 12857
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 9:47am | IP Logged | 2
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I tend to use the Brexit as a point of reference. Political commentators mostly seemed to be against Brexit, as did people in the U.K. But the polling showed it to be a tight race right up to voting day. It's the polling of voter's inclinations that will tell the tale of whether Trump or Clinton will win. Because most commentators are establishment people, and the "ordinary" people who get interviewed tend to be more liberal minded urban / suburbanites. The voters the media misses are exactly the people whom Trump appeals to.
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Robbie Parry
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 June 2007
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 12186
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 10:14am | IP Logged | 3
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How can the Electoral College system ever be determinative? I should research this more, you know.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132240
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 10:14am | IP Logged | 4
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Because W worked out so well for the world...••• W got my vote on the recommendation of a friend and former neighbor. He was from Oklahoma, and self-identified as a "Yellow Dog Democrat." That meant he'd vote for a yellow dog as long as it was running on the Democratic ticket. But during years working in Washington DC, my friend had plenty of personal interactions with both Gore and Kerry, and he had no good things to say about either. And so, despite decades as a staunch Democrat, he voted for Bush. Wrong choice? No way we'll ever really know.
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Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 12429
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 10:14am | IP Logged | 5
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I really hate the fact that I have to vote for Clinton...
***
I, as well. I've never been able to get over her swooping in at the last minute to magically transform herself into my fellow New Yorker simply to exploit my beloved home-state as the mere device to propel herself into the office that, most likely, she'll hold next year. And that's an old grievance. She's hardly for me an appealing candidate in sundry other ways.
But, I mean... Trump, instead...? Trump..?!
Man, what an election this is...
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Fred J Chamberlain
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 August 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 4018
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 10:24am | IP Logged | 6
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I hate the situation that I find myself in. I will be
voting for Gary Johnson.... unless it looks like Hilary
will be losing the state of PA votes.
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Peter Hicks
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 1886
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 10:34am | IP Logged | 7
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But this time I'm not going to. I really hate the fact that I have to vote for Clinton but I'm at the point where not only does Trump need to lose the popular vote, he needs to lose spectacularly, even though it's all about the electoral vote in the end. Anything to dissuade him from attempting this again in 2020, or any other GOPer from giving him serious consideration in the future.
*****************************************************
I think Trump will lose, but his success in winning the primary will become a blueprint for Republican candidates trying to get the nomination next time. While the establishment politicians were trying to reach out and grow the base among African Americans, Hispanics, Women, the LGBT community, etc, Trump just spoke the view of uneducated white guys and got enough votes from the Republican base to seal the nomination. One or more candidates will surely try this strategy again next time.
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Mark Haslett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 19 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 6097
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 10:54am | IP Logged | 8
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I wonder if the current Trump voters could be uniformly satisfied with a
copycat. There is a lot of discontent united under the Trump umbrella. And
the Clinton one too-- united against Trump!
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Vinny Valenti
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 8030
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 10:55am | IP Logged | 9
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"One or more candidates will surely try this strategy again next time."
You're probably right....but I hope you're wrong! There's a sliver of hope in my heart that Trump get's 40% or less of the electoral vote...and more like 30% or less of the popular vote. And in that regard, every vote does indeed count.
Not that Romney was so great, but I hope that he gives it a shot in 2020. During the debate I kept thinking about how if that was Romney and Clinton on stage, he very well could have won the debate. He wasn't anywhere near as bad as he was portrayed as in 2012, IMO. I feel like the anti-Romney barbs of that election has lead to "crying wolf" fatigue now that Trump is being treated similarly - though Trump deserves it so much more. One of Romney's "gotchas" was that secret recording of him stating that 47% of voters were not going to vote for him anyway - and personally I thought that there was absolutely nothing wrong with that statement.
Edited by Vinny Valenti on 27 September 2016 at 10:59am
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Jim Lynch
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 21 August 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 617
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 11:14am | IP Logged | 10
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"I, as well. I've never been able to get over her swooping in at the last minute to magically transform herself into my fellow New Yorker simply to exploit my beloved home-state..."
the senior senator from my state doesn't even own a home in the state he represents, and only comes home during elections.
I want a candidate to come out and say "I'm running to benefit myself, and whatever special interest is bankrolling me, and will do nothing to help you at all, but will make me and mine a lot of money at your expense.." I'd vote for that person in a moment, as they'd be the only one speaking the truth.
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Dave Kopperman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 December 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3135
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 12:18pm | IP Logged | 11
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JB wrote:
| my "one man, one vote" meant nothing, since the state always went Democratic. |
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It's odd, since two of the last three governors were GOP, and the statehouse is pretty evenly split. And yet, solid Democrat for US Senate and (as you note) President. New York is the same way, to a point where Albany is pretty much functionless. That's some magic districting right there.
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Dave Kopperman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 December 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3135
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| Posted: 27 September 2016 at 12:21pm | IP Logged | 12
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The other day, I was walking down Madison and passed Trump Tower. I had such bad vibes from it that on the way back to my car, I insisted we walk up Park, instead - just so I wouldn't have to pass it again.
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