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Jason Czeskleba
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Posts: 4548
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| Posted: 25 July 2020 at 12:55pm | IP Logged | 1
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The National Guard supports Trump because he is the commander-in-chief. If he loses the election, he will no longer be the commander-in-chief the moment Biden is sworn in. The notion that any substantial amount of NG would go rogue and continue to support him against the chain of command seems quite unlikely.
And Trump's political support (from Congressional Republicans) derives from the fact that he is popular with Republicans and can theoretically help them get re-elected. If he loses the election that will mean his popularity has ebbed to the point he is no longer politically useful, and they will abandon him.
Trump has been so norm-shattering that I understand why people are imagining scenarios like him losing but refusing to leave office, but they are not plausible. Anyway, we have enough likely scenarios to worry about without thinking about stuff like that, such as Trump actually winning through a combo of voter suppression, low turnout, and shenanigans with ballots. Or the integrity of results being compromised by hacking or mail sabotage.
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8844
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| Posted: 26 July 2020 at 8:46pm | IP Logged | 2
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A serious question, to be answered only with a "yes" or "no", to one and all here: Once Trump is no longer the President, will he be arrested for his crimes?
I say YES.
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Marc M. Woolman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 April 2008
Location: Canada
Posts: 2096
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 1:26am | IP Logged | 3
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So if Trump loses, but it
is not by a landslide,
it's close, maybe within
the margin of error, and
declares the results not
valid, it becomes a court
battle, with no one sworn
in until the highest
court renders it's
decision. A court Trump
has stacked with
Conservative judges.
If that plays out the
national guard and the
police will support
Trump. Who does the
military support in a
contested election?
With low voter-turnout
due to Covid-19, this is
not a far-fetched
scenario.
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8844
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 5:36am | IP Logged | 4
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Won't happen. Constitutional law. The Supreme Court cannot decide the election, only the electors can. And they MUST abide by the will of the people.
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 30901
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 5:45am | IP Logged | 5
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It doesn’t matter if anyone is sworn in or not. If he doesn’t win the
election, he is no longer president on Jan 20, 2021. No ifs, ands or
buts. If The election is still being contested on that day, guess what
happens? He is no longer president. He can’t just put it off and put it off
and stay president the whole time. Per the Constitution, the term is
OVER on that day.
And if there’s no clear winner by that time, there’s no VP, either. And
with no POTUS or VP, who’s next in the line of succession? That’s
right.
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Neil Lindholm
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 January 2005
Location: China
Posts: 4940
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 6:22am | IP Logged | 6
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Can Trump declare some sort of emergency decree to get the election postponed?
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James Woodcock
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 21 September 2007
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 7622
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 7:15am | IP Logged | 7
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And if there’s no clear winner by that time, there’s no
VP, either. And with no POTUS or VP, who’s next in the
line of succession? That’s right.
----------------
That will be very interesting to see if it happens.
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 30901
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 7:28am | IP Logged | 8
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He may be able to do that, Neil, but even if the election is pushed back
to, say, February, as of Jan 20, he is no longer president. No matter
what happens with the election, his term is over on that day. His term
isn’t dictated by having an election. Constitutionally, the term for
POTUS is four years. No more. There are no “but what ifs?” If he
doesn’t outright win the election, his last day as president and all that
comes with it is over on Jan 20.
Now, would Trump and the Trumpublicans really want the line of
succession to come into play on Jan 20?
Edited by Brian Miller on 27 July 2020 at 7:32am
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8844
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 8:18am | IP Logged | 9
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Can Trump declare some sort of emergency decree to get the election postponed?
************************************
No, again Constitutional Law.
And if by some weird miracle there's no clear winner and it' still being debated come January 21st, then the Speaker of the House takes over. BUT everything must be verified and finalized by, I believe December 6th, or around that date. Even the Supreme Court has to abide by that. Remember 2000?
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Eric Ladd
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 August 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 4506
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 8:20am | IP Logged | 10
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The 20th Amendment states the powers for the current President and Vice President end at noon on January 20th. If the election results are contested I don't know what would happen, but most likely the succession of power would kick in. For an absence of an election most definitely the succession of power would occur. Nothing supersedes the the 20th Amendment as far as I can see, but I am just an armchair Constitutional scholar. =)
I think Brian has the right idea implying the Trumpublicans (love it) would not like the succession of power allowing Nancy Pelosi to take over. I wonder how many of them are even considering that possibility?
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Peter Hicks
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 1891
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 8:33am | IP Logged | 11
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If a Supreme Court Justice dies between election day and Jan 20, could the Senate still rush through a new judge during that period?
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 30901
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| Posted: 27 July 2020 at 9:11am | IP Logged | 12
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Yes. But the senatorial terms end on Jan 3, so, if the Trumpublicans
keep the senate, they’d have nothing to worry about. But if they lose
the majority, they’d only have until the 3rd of January. Two months is
pretty quick, but I suppose it could be done.
And if done, pretty much exposing McConnell even more of being a
lying piece of dog shit.
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