This scares me! NO !!

I remember this guy from 2016, and scoffed at him like everybody else at the time. It seemed like he didn't even believe his own numbers at that time.

I remember this guy from 2016, and scoffed at him like everybody else at the time. It seemed like he didn't even believe his own numbers at that time.

------

I'll point out several things:

- His model is based entirely on the performance of the candidate in the primaries, which is... odd.

- Despite the 25 out of 27 claim, the model was only used for prediction since 1996. Arguably his model is overfitting the data to be predictive of the previous years.

- Technically, he was wrong in 2016? His model was predictive of the general election. Clinton won the popular vote. His "correct prediction" was a fluke. He changed the model to predict the electoral college this year. Let's see how that goes.

Current polling in battleground states:

Pennsylvania:  Biden up by 8 (53-45)

Florida:  Biden up by 3 (48-45, statistical dead heat)

Wisconsin:  Biden up by 11 (54-43)

Michigan:  Biden up by 8 (52-44)

North Carolina:  Biden up by 8 (53-45)

Nevada:  Biden up by 9 (54-45)

Georgia:  Biden up by 6 (52-46)

Iowa:  Biden down 1 (48-49, statistical dead heat)

Texas:  Biden down 4 (47-51, statistical dead heat)

Ohio:  Biden down 2 (48-50, statistical dead heat)

Even without winning the states that are considered a statistical dead heat where he's down, Biden is poised to win by a lot IF the polling is correct.  Polling this year vs 2016 is far different in how they're processed.  Plus, with the early voting, some of these number might actually be even stronger for Biden.

If Biden wins all those states I listed above where he's currently leading, he'll have an electoral college win of 338-200.  Hilary lost 304-227.  A Biden win by that much would definitely signify a resounding loss.

Kevin’s state by state summary above shows Trump’s problem.   Biden only has to take back the three Great Lakes states that Trump won by less than 1% in 2016, and polls consistently give him a firm lead in those three states.  Meanwhile, Trump’s resources are stretched thin playing defence in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, states that Trump MUST win, but that would be just a nice bonus for Joe.

Marc

"...even things that professor says could change his prediction."

Then he needs to come out and change his prediction! Even just for my paranoid self. I'm not usually superstitious, but when it comes to the Trumpster winning, I need all the voodoo powers at work!

and as for the polls...

What is your source for the polling numbers?

*********************

Most of it was from NBC News, using the data from SurveyMonkey/Axios from 09/18-10/15.  My guess is that's it's aggregate data.

Texas and Ohio was from RCP.