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Matt Reed
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 12:22am | IP Logged | 1 post reply

Instead of having multiple threads about wins and losses or having the discussion get lost in the morass of Trump bullshit, this is the thread to post in regarding the election just four days away.  

Post your hopes, fears and dreams here as well as election night reaction.  I mean that.  Post it ONLY here!  Don't start a separate thread about the Florida gubernatorial race, for example, otherwise the entire board will be filled with individual discussions about a variety of different races.  Keep it localized instead of segmented.  This is the BYRNE Board, after all, not a general discussion board. 
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John Byrne
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 5:38am | IP Logged | 2 post reply

My greatest concern is that the Dems are just too sure of themselves, too certain that the House is going to “flip”. That kind of confidence could end up encouraging a lot of people NOT to vote, since they “don’t need to.”

Tuesday may not bring the good news we’re hoping for.

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Brennan Voboril
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 5:55am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

Maybe not - we all remember the 2016 polls / forecasts.  The polling professionals, and media pundits, sure had egg on their faces.  I remember watching their faces as the results came in - not a pretty picture.  
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Steven Brake
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 6:01am | IP Logged | 4 post reply

Hello from across the Pond!

Out of curiosity, what might happen if Trump and the Republicans win? Would it serve as a massive body blow to the Democrats, leading to infighting that damages their prospects at the next U.S election? Or would it galvanize them into becoming more effective?

I appreciate that this is speculation upon speculation, so JB/Mods please feel free to delete this post if you think it's not going to lead to a useful discussion! But, otherwise, I'd be interested to read the thoughts of other posters.
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Brennan Voboril
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 6:56am | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Steven, in my view, Trump will win reelection in 2020 - no matter the midterm results.  I don't see the Democrats having any issues aside from attacking Trump, and blaming the Russians.  
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John Byrne
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 7:40am | IP Logged | 6 post reply

Trump’s reelection is a certainty. Then worry about 2024, when he might seek an excuse to “suspend” the elections.
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Eric Ladd
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 7:44am | IP Logged | 7 post reply

If the Republicans hold the House and Senate it will more likely be a massive body blow to democracy. This idiot President would treat it like a validation for everything since his election and would most likely look to push things even farther. I am certain you would see Mueller fired, the military used to prevent the "hostile democratic mob" from protesting and the Supreme Court would be put to the test to see if it could actually protect Rump and anyone associated with him. Essentially, the worst things we have seen with regard to human decency would slide still further toward this might makes right attitude that exists.
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Brennan Voboril
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 8:00am | IP Logged | 8 post reply

Eric I am not sure how it could be a body blow to democracy if the GOP holds the line during the midterms.  Wouldn't their holding the line be the will of the people via a democratic election?  Or do you see some kind of election interference happening?  

Edited by Brennan Voboril on 03 November 2018 at 8:00am
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Eric Sofer
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 9:05am | IP Logged | 9 post reply

Brennan, from another Eric's point of view, it feels and seems as if the Republicans are headed in a direction that is leading to a dictatorship - which leaves no room for democracy.

Further, it seems that too many people are perfectly happy to follow the "democratically elected leadership" and, following orders, putting on their shackles of enslavement, and building their own gallows. We have some stupid people, and at times it seems that they outnumber the rational people.

Many of the Republicans are trying to disenfranchise those who would vote against them, Trump, and their policies. It appears that what is happening right now duplicates some of the events in the 30s in Germany... a little freedom removed here, a few people repressed there, a group being identified for hate and oppression... and suddenly, the secret police are in force, the media are closely restricted, neighboring countries are "annexed", the voices of opposition are silenced... and the camps are opened again.

We Jews are committed to never forgetting, and doing our best to never let it happen again. It appears that too many events and policies are following a path walked once before... and THIS world war would be nuclear. If there were any survivors, they would be in a new Dark Ages.

Is this taking things to extremes? Maybe... but those extremes are what we fear. These midterm elections will indicate the direction that American voters want to go. There is supposed to be a system of checks and balances, of equal (and civil) input and discourse from all parties. If more Americans vote for Republican rule... then there may not be enough opposition left to save the country from a dictatorship.
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Eric Ladd
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 9:20am | IP Logged | 10 post reply

Mr. Sofer has my meaning. It is tough to consider US Politics as Democratic in anything other than process because of the policies, activities and results from the people in power. We can argue the semantics of calling the election democratic if the GOP holds the House and Senate, but my meaning is the party in power is behaving very much like a dictatorship half the time and if they retain power it might very well be all of the time.
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Brennan Voboril
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 10:55am | IP Logged | 11 post reply

I see what you are both saying but it is hard to see how the present situation compares to 1930s Nazi Germany.  However, I can see how we could stumble into a war with Russia but which party is at fault there?  To me, both of them are.  

I've not cared too much for any president since JFK, or the way the country has gone since then either - with a few exceptions for certain policies, like health care for all (but I would have preferred to see single-payer for all, like Sanders wants). 


Edited by Brennan Voboril on 03 November 2018 at 10:55am
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Leigh DJ Hunt
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 11:43am | IP Logged | 12 post reply

I never heard the word gubernatorial before. Learn something every day.

I hope you guys are as wrong about Trump getting re-elected as you were about him getting elected in the first place!
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Michael Roberts
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 12:52pm | IP Logged | 13 post reply

While Trump love to show off the electoral map and claim a landslide, the 2016 election really came down to 77,000 voters in three states. If those votes in those states had gone the other direction, Clinton would be President. The election was decided by a football stadium's worth of people. All that is required to make sure that Trump is not re-elected is to get people off their asses and vote.
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Dave Kopperman
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 1:03pm | IP Logged | 14 post reply

Meanwhile, over in Libertarian Land: http://reason.com/blog/2018/10/31/its-ok-not-to-vote

This annoyed me so much I thought I ought to share the love.
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Brian Miller
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 1:52pm | IP Logged | 15 post reply

Brennan, I fail to see how anyone CANNOT see the parallels between the current US and 1930’s Germany. 

Trump wants all Muslims gone. All Latinos gone. Blacks are “too stupid to vote for him.” Women are playthings to him. Unless you’re a white male, preferably a rich one, you are beneath him. His racism is blatant and his ascension to the highest office in the land is a signal that racism is ok and to act upon it is even better. I know he walked back on it later, but when talking about this caravan of people walking thru Mexico to the US, he actually said yesterday that if they throw rocks at our troops, our troops have permission to shoot them. He hoped it didn’t happen, but it would be ok to combat a rock thrower with a machine gun. Just to keep those dirty Mexicans out. He’s deploying 15,000 active troops WITHIN OUR OWN BORDER. What happens when this “emergency “ goes away? What other “emergency” will pop up that requires our active military to be deployed within our borders? With the divisiveness that he keeps stoking, how long will it be before political opposition gets visits from the military? Or even worse these “hometown militias.”
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Trevor Smith
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 2:37pm | IP Logged | 16 post reply

"Then worry about 2024, when he might seek an excuse to
“suspend” the elections."

**

What's sad/scary is that this doesn't seem far-fetched
to me at all.
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James Woodcock
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 2:46pm | IP Logged | 17 post reply

I've been saying for years that Trump's plan is:
Discredit the press - check
Discredit the security services - check
Discredit the electoral process - check
Moot removing the two term limit - check
Prep the Amendment 2 brigade - check.

Couple that with increased racism and segregation and you have:
A dangerous man who will not leave regardless of win or lose, will get his supporters in line because he has them disbelieving everything his opponents say, and calling on idiots with guns to protect him as he refuses to leave.

When I first said this I was laughed at. It's looking more and more likely
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Brennan Voboril
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 3:26pm | IP Logged | 18 post reply

Brian I can't take a comparison of 1930s Nazi Germany and 2016-2018 U.S. seriously because similar things are not happening here.  

You're telling me Trump is going to impose emergency rule?  I don't see it.

When Hitler moved to take power he also moved to eliminate all opposition to his rule.  Hitler banned opposition meetings within a week of him becoming Chancellor in 1933.  There is a healthy opposition to Trump today.  Its meetings are not banned.  Its leaders are not arrested.  There's been no Night of the Long Knives.  

In the 1930s there was a worldwide depression - not so today.

I could go on but little point as we can all read the history of 1930s Germany.


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Eric Sofer
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 5:32pm | IP Logged | 19 post reply

Brennan, Santayana said that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it - but he didn't say that it would be an exact repeat. No two events are identical.

Recall that Germany started in... well, Germany. Trump and the Republicans have to consolidate their hold in the U.S. first.

As for most of your other points, all I can say is... YET. Trump's had less than two years to establish his rule. I fear we are in the middle of horrific events that might need to be viewed externally for a proper perspective.

And buddy, don't I ony wish that I'm wrong!
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Doug Centers
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 5:35pm | IP Logged | 20 post reply

I cast my ballot a couple of days ago. Other than the very important gubernatorial, congress and state races there are a couple of serious proposals in my state.
Prop 2- End gerrymandering. As important as anything I can think of to get this democracy thing right.

Prop 3- Make it easier to vote. Automatic registering when renewing license, no restrictions to get an absentee ballot.
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Christopher Frost
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Posted: 03 November 2018 at 8:39pm | IP Logged | 21 post reply

Automatic registration seems like a no-brainer. Here in Canada, we can register to vote when we file our taxes with a simple check of a box on our forms.

As for the election, I fear that the American populace that bothers to vote won't make the smart choice here.
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Neil Lindholm
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 1:18am | IP Logged | 22 post reply

In Canada, we don't have gerrymandering since the election boundaries are drawn by an independent organization (Elections Canada). Is such an organization possible in the US or does each State draw their own boundaries?
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Doug Centers
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 6:35am | IP Logged | 23 post reply

Yes Neil, each State.
In simple terms ,whichever party controls the state gets to draw the districts up. So you can see the obvious outcomes.

If the prop passes in MI, the Secretary of State will randomly pick 13 registered voters. Four from each major party and 5 unaffiliated voters, to redraw the districts.


Edited by Doug Centers on 04 November 2018 at 6:36am
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Neil Lindholm
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 6:43am | IP Logged | 24 post reply

Do any other States have an independent departments that draws election boundaries? It seems so strange that allowing the party in charge to draw the election boundaries is the desired norm. 

Edited by Neil Lindholm on 04 November 2018 at 6:44am
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Mark Haslett
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 7:51am | IP Logged | 25 post reply

Brennan: "I don't see the Democrats having any issues aside from attacking
Trump, and blaming the Russians. "

***

...Well, there's the little matter of health care which happens to be the issue
the Democrats are actually running on (as opposed to impeachment or
Russians, which they aren't mentioning). It also happens to be the issue
that voters, Red and Blue, identify as most important.

It's got the Republicans on the run, lying like crazy that they have always
been protecting pre-existing conditions when, in many cases, they are
actively suing to end all parts of Obamacare even as they speak.

****

Brennan: You're telling me Trump is going to impose emergency rule? I
don't see it.

**

I agree with you on the historical differences between Hitler's moment and
Trump's, but consider this: when Trump is removed, he will face criminal
charges of many kinds and there is a lot of will to see him actually pay for
them.

Trump has nothing to gain by cooperatively agreeing to comply with norms.
He will try everything he can think of to stay in power because he literally
has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Why wouldn't he impose emergency rule?
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