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Steve De Young Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 01 April 2008 Location: United States Posts: 3488
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 12:36pm | IP Logged | 1
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Oops. The epidemiologist whose estimate the 2.2 million deaths worst case scenario was based on has drastically revised the death rate of Covid-19. He was predicting 500,000 deaths in Britain if nothing was done. Now he's projecting 20,000 after one day of lockdown. Applying that math to his estimate here in the US, that would be 88,000 deaths. And part of his findings is that a little more than half of those people would have been dead by the end of the year anyway due to underlying illnesses or age.
Meanwhile, by the end of this week, 10 million people in the US will have become unemployed. LINK
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Peter Martin Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 March 2008 Location: Canada Posts: 15779
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 1:00pm | IP Logged | 2
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He is predicting that a strict lockdown if maintained will save lives. Where's the oops part?
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Greg McPhee Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 25 August 2004 Location: United Kingdom Posts: 5065
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 1:01pm | IP Logged | 3
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Steven, 10 million dead is an even worse metric.
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Steven Myers Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 10 June 2004 Location: United States Posts: 5624
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 2:41pm | IP Logged | 4
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How accurate do you think the numbers from China are? The death rate elsewhere appears much more severe.
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Greg McPhee Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 25 August 2004 Location: United Kingdom Posts: 5065
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 2:52pm | IP Logged | 5
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That's an interesting one. I'm just watching a programme on the BBC, and they are saying that because China just locked down as (and I quote) "Only China could", that they stemmed or stopped the death toll.
Italy now has another problem, and my aunt who lives in Italy touched on this a few weeks back. A number of people in the North fled South thinking it would take them away from the virus. Now, we are seeing death rates there.
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Steve De Young Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 01 April 2008 Location: United States Posts: 3488
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 3:03pm | IP Logged | 6
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I guess you didn't follow what he said. They got the model wrong. The death rate is far lower than they thought. They had the numerator, the deaths, right. They had the denominator, the number of cases, wrong exponentially. This isn't me saying this, this is the guy who ran the original model we've all been using saying this.
The new model says that if we had done nothing, 88,000 people would have died in the US. More than half of whom would have been dead by the end of the year anyway due to age or illness.
And we haven't done nothing. We've done a lot. Meaning we've already massively shrunken that number.
This also means that China isn't lying or wrong about the figures. Their figures correspond to the new model. Their figures aren't wrong, our model was wrong.
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Eric Sofer Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 January 2014 Location: United States Posts: 4789
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 3:56pm | IP Logged | 7
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Steve D.Y.: "The new model says that if we had done nothing, 88,000 people would have died in the US. More than half of whom would have been dead by the end of the year anyway due to age or illness"
And those 44,000 will still die by the end of the year anyhow... it's not a "quota" by Nature. We just don't need the extra deaths by doing naught.
Again, with no insult, I fail to see the point you're trying to make. Might you please explain?
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Peter Martin Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 March 2008 Location: Canada Posts: 15779
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:18pm | IP Logged | 8
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I guess you didn't follow what he said. ---------------------------------------------- No, Steve, I think it's you that hasn't followed what he's said.
Here is what he has said:
- I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
- This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
- My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
- Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
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Brian Miller Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004 Location: United States Posts: 30886
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:41pm | IP Logged | 9
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Looks like Steve is playing the ol' "eh, they would've died anyway" game.
Fuck you, Steve.
Edited by Brian Miller on 26 March 2020 at 5:41pm
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Brandon Frye Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 November 2004 Posts: 1318
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:42pm | IP Logged | 10
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If there is a silver lining anywhere to be found in this, with all public gatherings currently stopped, we at least won't have to read about any mass shootings for awhile.
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Brian Miller Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004 Location: United States Posts: 30886
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:47pm | IP Logged | 11
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Anyone that's just blowing this off needs to watch this video.
Except you, Steve, since it's ok by you if nothing more is done and we just let everybody die.
LINK
This is fucking real.
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Brian Miller Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004 Location: United States Posts: 30886
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:48pm | IP Logged | 12
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If there is a silver lining anywhere to be found in this, with all public gatherings currently stopped, we at least won't have to read about any mass shootings for awhile
********
Then why are so many people buying up all the guns and ammo right now?
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