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James Johnson Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 March 2009 Location: United States Posts: 2041
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 6:17pm | IP Logged | 1
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If there is a silver lining anywhere to be found in this, with all public gatherings currently stopped, we at least won't have to read about any mass shootings for awhile
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Then why are so many people buying up all the guns and ammo right now?
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Because they are losers.
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Eric Ladd Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 August 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 4506
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:51am | IP Logged | 2
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The oven is cleaning.
Fake news kills
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Larry Gil Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 09 November 2005 Location: Canada Posts: 761
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 10:16am | IP Logged | 3
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You can't trust any statistical data that comes out of China. Period.
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Steve De Young Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 01 April 2008 Location: United States Posts: 3487
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 11:12am | IP Logged | 4
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Wow. So, I came here to post about some studies, from the same people who did the original ones, are now revising the deadliness of the disease drastically downwards, and apparently, this makes me a terrible person.
How is the idea that there were a lot more asymptomatic infections than we knew, and thus the virus is a lot less deadly than we thought, bad news exactly? How does pointing out that the same experts are now revising their death estimates downward make me terrible exactly?
And why are so many of you so emotionally invested in this being as terrible as possible?
Edited by Steve De Young on 27 March 2020 at 11:13am
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Peter Martin Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 March 2008 Location: Canada Posts: 15729
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 12:04pm | IP Logged | 5
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Steve, when the very person you posted about literally says "Our lethality estimates remain unchanged", it doesn't necessarily make you terrible, it just makes what you are saying incorrect.
Furthermore, you are repeatedly incorrect, as this is the second time I've posted this quote and yet you re-state your misinformation that the virus is less deadly than previously thought.
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Eric Ladd Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 August 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 4506
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 1:59pm | IP Logged | 6
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Steve, in general people could be sensitive to any information that tries to downplay the severity or danger of this virus. One very vocal idiot does it daily on television and seems to be setting the stage to start blaming others for his inadequate response. I don’t think people are emotionally invested in this being as horrible as possible, but rather emotionally invested and opposed to anyone suggesting it won’t be as bad as we think.
I think it is going to be very bad and hope I’m wrong, but when bloggers change their tune after getting the virus, people die from it after calling it “mass hysteria” and sad stories of underestimating its severity leading to inadequate response, people are on edge.
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Michael Penn Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 April 2006 Location: United States Posts: 12406
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:09pm | IP Logged | 7
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From the Wall Street Journal:
>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. <<
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the- coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
QUOTE:
If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high. [...] This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. |
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This piece is subscription-only, so I will not reproduce it all.
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David Allen Perrin Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 15 April 2009 Location: United States Posts: 3511
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:27pm | IP Logged | 8
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You know how in many Sci-Fi movies humanity responds to the aftermath of an attack by a malevolent alien species by banding together to change they way we treat each other so we as a society can seek mutual betterment?
COVID 19 is that alien. And if this ends with our society even slightly resembling what it was before it arrived....we better learn how to operate our lives differently. Specifically we better figure out that our society is only as safe and secure as the least protected person among us.
Edited by David Allen Perrin on 27 March 2020 at 2:28pm
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Brandon Frye Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 November 2004 Posts: 1317
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:29pm | IP Logged | 9
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QUOTE:
Then why are so many people buying up all the guns and ammo right now? |
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Because people, egged on by the media & politicians, are descending into panic mode and fear a collapsing of society (anarchy, looting, riots, etc). This follows with a fear that law enforcement will be stretched too thin to protect people and a need to arm up to protect themselves
I'm not saying it's right or justified. I'm saying it's the cause-and-effect of creating a climate of fear and panic
Edited by Brandon Frye on 28 March 2020 at 4:26pm
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Peter Martin Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 March 2008 Location: Canada Posts: 15729
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 3:48pm | IP Logged | 10
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Regarding the WSJ article: without a doubt the number of true infections is much larger than the number of positively identified cases. Most countries do not have anywhere near capacity to test at the moment.
I think the WSJ is making wild assumptions though about the number of infected in the US. The pattern of serious/critical cases shows hotspots in certain specific areas (most notably, New York). I don't think this is consistent with 6 million infections by 9 March. The rate at which this proliferates is possibly doubling the number of infections every two to three days -- which means it would have have peaked in terms of infections already. The pattern of serious cases suggests the viirus is still working its way inwards from those coastal hotspots.
Even better contrary evidence is in the form of the Diamond Princess. It had 3711 passengers. More than 3000 tests were performed. 712 tested positive. So far 10 have died. That is a mortality rate of 1.4%. This seriously undermines the WSJ's suggestion that the mortality rate is a fraction of a percent.
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Steve De Young Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 01 April 2008 Location: United States Posts: 3487
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Posted: 28 March 2020 at 7:47am | IP Logged | 11
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Peter, the WSJ article says exactly what I've been saying as have a number of other scientists.
Your Diamond Princess example doesn't apply. Its a cruise ship, not a scientific sample of the general population. What is the average age of a cruise ship passenger, do you imagine? Higher or lower than the national average in the US? I'd bet a fair degree higher. And that's just one way where the sample differs from the general population.
And if, among a group of older and therefore more at risk people, the death rate is only 1.4%, then how is it unbelievable that among the general population with a lower average age it might be half that or less?
We all trusted the scientists on their original estimates from the data, and anyone who doubted them was rightly informed that they don't have the credentials to disagree with the experts. Now that the experts are revising those estimates, why do so many people insist on disbelieving them?
I can pretty much tell you why. Because the media has everyone terrified. They got everyone to comply with lockdown (which was important for at least 2 weeks) by telling them that if they didn't they'd murder grandma. They got everyone to invest emotionally. So now that they're trying to unemotionally communicate a new set of facts, no one wants to risk murdering grandma if the new estimates turn out to be incorrect.
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Eric Ladd Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 August 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 4506
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Posted: 29 March 2020 at 7:04am | IP Logged | 12
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A very good explanation regarding the virus mutation that lead to our current pandemic.
The Perfect Virus
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