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James Johnson
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Joined: 16 March 2009
Location: United States
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Posted: 26 March 2020 at 6:17pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

If there is a silver lining anywhere to be found in this, with all public 
gatherings currently stopped, we at least won't have to read about any 
mass shootings for awhile

********

Then why are so many people buying up all the guns and ammo right 
now?

**********

Because they are losers.
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Eric Ladd
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Location: Canada
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:51am | IP Logged | 2 post reply

The oven is cleaning.

Fake news kills
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Larry Gil
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 10:16am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

You can't trust any statistical data that comes out of China. Period.
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Steve De Young
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 11:12am | IP Logged | 4 post reply

Wow.  So, I came here to post about some studies, from the same people who did the original ones, are now revising the deadliness of the disease drastically downwards, and apparently, this makes me a terrible person.

How is the idea that there were a lot more asymptomatic infections than we knew, and thus the virus is a lot less deadly than we thought, bad news exactly?  How does pointing out that the same experts are now revising their death estimates downward make me terrible exactly?

And why are so many of you so emotionally invested in this being as terrible as possible?


Edited by Steve De Young on 27 March 2020 at 11:13am
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 12:04pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Steve, when the very person you posted about literally says "Our lethality estimates remain unchanged", it doesn't necessarily make you terrible, it just makes what you are saying incorrect. 

Furthermore, you are repeatedly incorrect, as this is the second time I've posted this quote and yet you re-state your misinformation that the virus is less deadly than previously thought.

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Eric Ladd
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 1:59pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply

Steve, in general people could be sensitive to any information that tries
to downplay the severity or danger of this virus. One very vocal idiot
does it daily on television and seems to be setting the stage to start
blaming others for his inadequate response. I don’t think people are
emotionally invested in this being as horrible as possible, but rather
emotionally invested and opposed to anyone suggesting it won’t be as
bad as we think.

I think it is going to be very bad and hope I’m wrong, but when bloggers
change their tune after getting the virus, people die from it after calling
it “mass hysteria” and sad stories of underestimating its severity leading
to inadequate response, people are on edge.
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Michael Penn
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:09pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

From the Wall Street Journal:

>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be
too high by orders of magnitude. <<

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-
coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464



 QUOTE:
If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill
millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines,
then the extraordinary measures being carried out in
cities and states around the country are surely
justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that
premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly
be orders of magnitude too high. [...] This does not make
Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and
across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed
health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is
a far less severe problem than one that kills two
million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions
around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide
decisions now is critical.


This piece is subscription-only, so I will not reproduce
it all.
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David Allen Perrin
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:27pm | IP Logged | 8 post reply

You know how in many Sci-Fi movies humanity responds to the aftermath of an attack by a malevolent alien species by banding together to change they way we treat each other so we as a society can seek mutual betterment? 

COVID 19 is that alien.  And if this ends with our society even slightly resembling what it was before it arrived....we better learn how to operate our lives differently.  Specifically we better figure out that our society is only as safe and secure as the least protected person among us.




Edited by David Allen Perrin on 27 March 2020 at 2:28pm
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Brandon Frye
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:29pm | IP Logged | 9 post reply

[quote]Then why are so many people buying up all the guns and ammo right 
now?[quote]

Because people, egged on by the media & politicians, are descending into panic mode and fear a collapsing of society (anarchy, looting, riots, etc). This follows with a fear that law enforcement will be stretched too thin to protect people and a need to arm up to protect themselves

I'm not saying it's right or justified. I'm saying it's the cause-and-effect of creating a climate of fear and panic
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 27 March 2020 at 3:48pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply

Regarding the WSJ article: without a doubt the number of true infections is much larger than the number of positively identified cases. Most countries do not have anywhere near capacity to test at the moment.

I think the WSJ is making wild assumptions though about the number of infected in the US. The pattern of serious/critical cases shows hotspots in certain specific areas (most notably, New York). I don't think this is consistent with 6 million infections by 9 March. The rate at which this proliferates is possibly doubling the number of infections every two to three days -- which means it would have have peaked in terms of infections already. The pattern of serious cases suggests the viirus is still working its way inwards from those coastal hotspots.

Even better contrary evidence is in the form of the Diamond Princess. It had 3711 passengers. More than 3000 tests were performed. 712 tested positive. So far 10 have died. That is a mortality rate of 1.4%. This seriously undermines the WSJ's suggestion that the mortality rate is a fraction of a percent.
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