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Bob Simko Byrne Robotics Security
Negative Mod
Joined: 16 April 2004 Posts: 5982
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Posted: 03 April 2020 at 11:23am | IP Logged | 1
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GF and I are both healthcare workers...so far neither of us has had any known exposure risks yet, although next week she goes to NY to specifically manage ICU ventilator COVID patients.
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Kevin Brown Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005 Location: United States Posts: 8841
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Posted: 03 April 2020 at 11:24pm | IP Logged | 2
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You don’t need a math degree to see estimates of 20k-40k deaths are extremely low.
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IF the US mortality rate remains essentially the same (it's about 2.67%), that means the US will have between 1 to 1.5 million people infected to reach your 40,000. There's not that many infected worldwide at this moment.
What's insane to me are the doctors who are saying there will be 200,000 deaths in the US! Which means over 7 million infected. I honestly do not seeing it getting to that point. It would have gotten there had there been no social distancing or states ordering people to remain home as much as possible.
At best, assuming we maintain the social distancing, I don't see things flattening out in the US until at least May 1, with things getting back to semi-normal by July 1
Edited by Kevin Brown on 03 April 2020 at 11:25pm
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Matt Reed Byrne Robotics Security
Robotmod
Joined: 16 April 2004 Posts: 35729
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 2:45am | IP Logged | 3
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Kevin, the problem is with states that aren't taking this seriously. Alabama. Mississippi. Tennessee. I could go on. If just some of us take it seriously but the rest don't, the numbers are huge. If all of us take it seriously, the numbers are fewer but, sorry, still huge.
We can't have 37 states issue stay at home orders while the governor of Mississippi declares that every business in the state is "essential" thus it's business as usual. You can't have the governor of Alabama say that they're not "California" and thus won't issue the order even as her state is seeing dramatic rises in infection relative to population.
We're either all in or all out. There is no piecemeal approach to this, which is one of many ways the Trump administration has failed us.
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Matt Reed Byrne Robotics Security
Robotmod
Joined: 16 April 2004 Posts: 35729
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 2:57am | IP Logged | 4
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I'm a "cut it to you straight" kind of guy. Tell me the worst case scenario, and I can accept it.
That said, I'm gonna say that this shit ain't gonna be right in May. It ain't gonna be right in June. Hell, it may not be right in July. And even then? EVEN THEN? There won't be a vaccine until 2021. We are, AT BEST, 12 months out from controlling this thing.
At best.
Personally? I'd rather know I'm in it for the long haul than think "business as usual" will kick in May 1 or June 1. We are, ABSOLUTELY 100%, deluding ourselves if we're looking for an outdate pre vaccine. We just are. And we're roughly 18 months out.
Summer 2020 is gone. There will be idiots who party like it's 1999, but they will be the outliers. Your travel plans, your vacations, your ideas of rejoining society, partying at bars, watching movies in a theatre and dinning out with hundreds of people? Poof. Gone.
Accept it. Until there's a vaccine? Until we have a steadfast way to stop this spread other than staying at home? It's gone. The sooner people realize that, the better. I know "hope springs eternal" but, seriously, we're living in a different world than the one we rang in just four months ago.
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Eric Ladd Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 August 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 4506
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 4:35am | IP Logged | 5
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The lack of a federally mandated and coordinated response is only pushing the US date to normal, whatever that ends up being, farther out. There are only three ways to deal with the virus; let it run its course killing millions, vaccinate the world, or shelter in place killing the virus in 30 days. The first solution is insane, the second is a year away and the third requires that people be responsible, intelligent and considerate. So hunker down and wait for a vaccine?
Looks like years of thumbing a nose at authority, proudly embracing ignorance while denying science and promoting conmen to leadership roles may come back to bite us.
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Michael Roberts Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 20 April 2004 Location: United States Posts: 14812
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 7:47am | IP Logged | 6
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IF the US mortality rate remains essentially the same (it's about 2.67%), that means the US will have between 1 to 1.5 million people infected to reach your 40,000. There's not that many infected worldwide at this moment.
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At current rates, the number of cases in the US have been doubling every 5 days. The current number of cases is 277k. Also note that the worldwide number was 500k last week. Even with the stay at home and social distancing measures, I’d expect the number to top a million in the next week and a half to two weeks. We’re still behind in testing. The mortality rate also may get worse as more hospitals become overwhelmed.
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Doug Centers Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 February 2014 Location: United States Posts: 5467
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 8:06am | IP Logged | 7
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Michigan has now passed California for confirmed cases 3rd in the US. I live within the big red dot of Wayne Co., haven't left my yard in days (since my layoff). I encourage all to isolate as much as humanly possible.
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Steve De Young Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 01 April 2008 Location: United States Posts: 3488
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 10:25am | IP Logged | 8
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Keep in mind, the infection numbers are actually the number of positive tests. It's nowhere near the actual number of infections. In the earliest phase, only hospitalizations were being tested. Now its only people presenting severe symptoms. And roughly 50% of infections are asymptomatic, so any numbers on infections likely need to be tripled or quadrupled to estimate the real number of infections.
That said, the current estimate on the overall mortality rate in the US is 0.66 percent. That's an average based on the average age of the US population. The mortality rate for people in their 20's is estimated at 0.03 percent. The mortality rate for people in their 80's is 7.8 percent. This is why different communities and different nations are going to have different mortality rates based on their population. And there are other variables like population density and lung disease rates as well.
These are the numbers that are generating the 98,873 deaths in the US projection. But because there are so many estimates on the way to that number, you get the big margin of error on either side.
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Mark McKay Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004 Location: United States Posts: 2240
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 10:34am | IP Logged | 9
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The only way we’ll get back to business as normal pre vaccine is to accept a higher mortality rate and move on, which none of us seem prepared to do.
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James Woodcock Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 21 September 2007 Location: United Kingdom Posts: 7616
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 11:12am | IP Logged | 10
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@ some point, we have to move to a point where we can get herd immunity. So the problem is, how do we get to that when we have lock down? How do we get to that without major death numbers? Both Covid-19 directly & indirectly related?
If we just let people get infected, we reach the original bell curve, which swamps the hospital beds & people die from other issues because they couldn’t get a bed. The Covid-19 cases die because there aren’t enough ventilators.
So what do we do? I don’t know a I don’t have to make the decisions. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
What is clear, is that we need clear, consistent messages. & we need a leader who doesn’t contradict his medical advisors @ every turn. Johnson has been far better @ that than Trump.
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James Woodcock Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 21 September 2007 Location: United Kingdom Posts: 7616
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 11:23am | IP Logged | 11
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Oh yes, in the U.K., morons are setting fire to 5G masts as other morons are posting that the virus is drawn to 5G waves or Covid-19 is a smoke screen allowing the companies to erect the masts (take your pick)
@ least three people I know have posted saying they think there is some truth to one of those stories. I wonder if they have the intelligence to put two & two together when I call anyone who believe these theories a moron.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005 Posts: 132282
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Posted: 04 April 2020 at 12:01pm | IP Logged | 12
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Herd immunity?“For so it had come about, as indeed I and many men might have foreseen had not terror and disaster blinded our minds. These germs of disease have taken toll of humanity since the beginning of things--taken toll of our prehuman ancestors since life began here. But by virtue of this natural selection of our kind we have developed resisting power; to no germs do we succumb without a struggle, and to many-- those that cause putrefaction in dead matter, for instance --our living frames are altogether immune. But there are no bacteria in Mars, and directly these invaders arrived, directly they drank and fed, our microscopic allies began to work their overthrow. Already when I watched them they were irrevocably doomed, dying and rotting even as they went to and fro. It was inevitable. By the toll of a billion deaths man has bought his birthright of the earth, and it is his against all comers; it would still be his were the Martians ten times as mighty as they are. For neither do men live nor die in vain.” H. G. Wells, The War of the Worlds
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