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I suspect that Trump has pocket pardons for most of those involved and is betting that he can negotiate himself out of prison by renouncing any future runs for office and not releasing the pocket pardon he has for anyone that participated in January 6th (or, perhaps, EVERY federal prisoner). The real threat to their freedom lies in State prosecution. New York, in particular.

He has a long track record of escaping real consequences, but it seems like the two in charge of these investigations aren't interested in backing down or playing the game. He's rarely been in the kind of legal trouble he's facing now.

Will he go to prison? No idea, but the odds are quite a bit higher that Rudy or one of the Trump kids will do time. Biden isn't going to pardon any of these dirtbags.