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Mike O'Brien
Byrne Robotics Member
Official JB Historian
Joined: 18 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 10927
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| Posted: 20 May 2008 at 8:57pm | IP Logged | 1
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Yes, but Thom, it's very unlikely that the people who voted for Hillary, in any real numbers, will not vote for the D - a few die-hards won't, but we have primaries for each campaign - even though this one has lasted longer than most in recent times, in the end, the parties always come together and back the candidate.
Despite the length of this one, there's no reason why this one will play out nationally any different from other campaigns.
Some Hillary supporters will go to McCain, but on the other hand, some republicans will be voting Obama. It's not enough people to concern either side.
I'm very confident about this.
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Brian Hunt
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Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
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| Posted: 20 May 2008 at 9:03pm | IP Logged | 2
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The Ted Kennedy thing is sad. It's a tough situation for him and his family.
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Tom French
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Joined: 07 January 2005
Location: United States
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 6:11am | IP Logged | 3
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"Insurmountable lead" were the words by all the news "journalists" this morning. Obama has an "insurmountable lead."
But that doesn't seem to be stopping Hillary, tho.
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Kevin Hagerman
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 6:14am | IP Logged | 4
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She's trying to fake Obama out. "I mean, why else would she have stayed in?" said Obama in his concession speech. "I shall spend the next 4-8 years honing my math skills, 'cos CLEARLY I got something wrong here."
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Tom French
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 6:21am | IP Logged | 5
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She CAN'T stop! It's almost an addiction for her, now. She's... she's GOTTA win!
Maybe this is the real toll of not getting any sleep on the campaign trail. When the phone rings at three o'clock in the morning and you know it's your party calling to ask you to drop out, you should answer that call!
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Kevin Brown
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Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 6:33am | IP Logged | 6
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"Insurmountable lead" were the words by all the news "journalists" this morning. Obama has an "insurmountable lead."
But that doesn't seem to be stopping Hillary, tho.
**********************************
She has two ways to win the nomination:
1) She needs to win all the rest of the primaries going away. 75% to 25% and then get at least 82% of the remaining Super Delegates. That'll put her at 2,026. Chances of that happening are zero.
2) Both she and Obama go into the Democratic National Convention with neither having the lead and neither gets the nomination with the first vote. She can then get it with the second (or third or fourth...) vote becase delegates can then vote for whomever they want. Chances of that happening are extremely slim, but not too far out there.
So her only real chance is that Obama does not get another 60 Super Delegates before the DNC. If he does, she's done.
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Adam Hutchinson
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Joined: 15 December 2005
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 6:35am | IP Logged | 7
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Tom, don't forget she has proven that she is the candidate most likely win all the big electoral college...oh nevermind, I can't even finish the latest spin....
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Christopher Alan Miller
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 6:35am | IP Logged | 8
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She can then get it with the second (or third or fourth...) vote becase delegates can then vote for whomever they want
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Delegates can vote for whoever they want on the first ballot.
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Michael Myers
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 9:21am | IP Logged | 9
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If Senator Clinton is claiming her second largest fund-raising month ever, it doesn't really make much sense to drop out before early June. If anything the extended Democrat primary season seems to have, thus far, served to tamp down the natural proclivity for Republican-Democrat partisanship. Senator Obama has been defining himself against Senator McCain's various stances for at least a month, and there's still more than enough time for the Democrat party to rally behind him.
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Wayde Murray
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 9:29am | IP Logged | 10
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Thom wrote:
It's hard for me to see this as anything other than a vote against Obama; how many of these voters are going to reconsider in the general election, and how many will be swayed by McCain or will simply forgo the election entirely?
My thoughts as well. It's entirely possible that Clinton has done as well as she has because her "base" is at heart an anti-Obama constituency. They may very well be holding their collective noses as they vote for her, preferring any devil at all over the devil they dislike. In November they may well vote for McCain despite party loyalty.
There's no way of knowing for sure until Obama gets the nomination and the general election takes place, and even then it will be known by inference only, as I doubt many of them will be vocal about their reasons for voting against Obama.
This isn't even necessarily a racial issue, although for some it will be only about race. Keep in mind that the last presidential nominee who ran on a platform of "changing the old politics and overturning the staus quo" was Kennedy, and he only barely beat the uncharismatic Nixon, who was unliked by many even within his own party (including Ike). Some people don't like change, or don't believe change is possible, or even don't believe a politician is capable of engineering change (either because change is inherently impossible or because politicians are untrustworthy).
I was a kid in the sixties, and I remember it as a time of enormous hope ("we will land a man on the moon...", Mercury and Gemini and Apollo) and paralysing fear (Cuban Missle Crisis, Kennedy assassination, etc). Some people will vote for a quiet slide downhill over the possibility of a roller coaster's ups and downs.
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Jodi Moisan
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 9:31am | IP Logged | 11
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As long as Hillary is not running a mud slinging campaign against Barack (which she isn't now) having this go all the way, is good for democrats, because states that usually feel left out of the elections are now having high numbers of new registered democrats, which will help in the fall.
I do not see a big problem with the dems coming together, Once we go after the idea (McCain) of giving this country 4 more years of the same, will be reason enough to join together. Will we get the die hard, close minded, racists democrats, nope, but we are picking up, open minded intellegent republicans.
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Kevin Brown
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| Posted: 21 May 2008 at 9:50am | IP Logged | 12
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Delegates can vote for whoever they want on the first ballot.
**************************
Not they cannot. SUPER Delegates can switch allegiances prior to the DNC, as some already have in switching to Obama, but there's a "cut-off" as to when they can I believe. (Not 100% how the SDs work.) Pledged delegates MUST vote for for "their" candidate on the first vote. Edwards' pledged delegates, all 18 of them, can vote for whomever they wish though.
The second vote is a "free for all".
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Topic Closed)
