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Michael Myers Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 28 December 2004 Posts: 831
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 11:06am | IP Logged | 1
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Link to the revised Senate Bil: Economic Stimulus
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Joel Tesch Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 19 May 2006 Posts: 2834
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 11:07am | IP Logged | 2
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But surely many of these people were convinced that they weren't being irresponsible.
Some folks, sure. But I'm betting a huge number of these people are also people with huge credit card debt. It's wasn't a total snowjob on otherwise financially responsible people. Overall it's the current culture of "have it now and pay for it later." Everyone's to blame on this...the CEOs, the banks, lenders, the mortgage industry, and us. Everyone's played a part. Deep down, people knew they were gambling. They just expected that they were going to win...bc everyone else was. Well now, nobody is.
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Bruce Buchanan Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 14 June 2006 Location: United States Posts: 4797
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 11:09am | IP Logged | 3
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I believe the middle ground is that we shouldn't give the taxpayers' money to either the greedy lenders or irresponsible homeowners.
Al, you are right that lenders were overly aggressive in pitching these mortgages (among a multitude of sins). They should share in the blame - which is why I'm against this bailout.
But these homeowners have to bear responsibility, too. Just because someone tries to sell you a Rolex watch on a Times Square street corner doesn't mean you should buy it. What's the old saying - "If a deal is too good to be true, it probably is"?
A TV news show recently profiled a woman making $30,000 a year who bought a $200,000 home on a dubious "interest only for the first year" mortgage. When time came to start paying down the principle, she, of course, couldn't make her payments and defaulted. She claimed she didn't understand the deal she signed.
But I have to say, "Whose fault is that?" Anyone with a lick of sense understands that someone making 30 grand a year can't afford the monthly payments on a $200,000 mortgage. If you agree to such an obligation, it is your responsibility to understand what you are committing yourself to do. As both a philosophical and practical matter, I just don't believe people who act responsibly should be asked to subsidize those who act foolishly.
Edited by Bruce Buchanan on 01 October 2008 at 11:11am
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Donald Miller Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 03 February 2005 Location: United States Posts: 3597
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 11:23am | IP Logged | 4
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Bruce said: As both a philosophical and practical matter, I just don't believe
people who act responsibly should be asked to subsidize those who act
foolishly.
But that is a huge part of the problem... as far as borrowers go, there is no way to tell the difference between someone who was simply greedy and gambled wrong, And someone who was sold a pig-in-a poke.
The lending institutions however knew in advance that these loans were crap, hell they counted on it, so they could sell them to others...
for our resident economists (I'm looking at you Michael) what is the horrible fate that befalls us if we don't bale out the lenders?
Don Don
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Michael Myers Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 28 December 2004 Posts: 831
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 12:41pm | IP Logged | 5
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Don, I work with a utility company, but, as one of the two-dozen Michaels in this thread, I'll chip in...
The situation as it regards the liquidity trap is global, Don. No one is lending at the corporate level to any great extent, anywhere in the world. The only economic force capable of counter-acting such worldwide financial sentiment is the U.S. government. Remember, Europe's rate of growth has *been* stagnant taken as a whole and their credit problem predates our own. Now, long term, free-market solutions would work and provide more genuine stability, but the short-term hopes of off-setting a recession, of whatever magnitude, lay really only with the economic might of the American government acting directly to intervene. Everyone has ideological reservations of one sort or another, including myself, but that's how it shakes out.
Worst case? Assuming no or insufficient free-market solutions (a fairly big assumption, as, with everybody waiting to see what happens on the federal end, we can't expect anyone to step forward), we'd be looking at a full-stop liquidity trap at the beginning of a recession. Lending and risk incentive are vital to any productivity. The recession might be shallow or it might resemble the L-curve drop-off (steep decline in productivity followed by little immediate growth) of the Asian crisis or the American recessions of the early 80's and early 70's. A recession looks all but inevitable now, as the only lagging indicator came in today with manufacturing numbers finally following the other trends with no room for doubt. The only hurdle remaining to the announcement of onset is the relatively high GDP growth rate of the last quarter, but that indicator always lags.
In real terms, unemployment might reach, worst case, 9% or 10%. Again, that's worst case and it would take A LOT to get there. Even the extreme of 10% might not sound high to European forum members, but it would be a spectacular drop for America. The difficulty is always that, once the ball starts rolling with a hit in confidence, these things work in synergistic fashion. So, we might, then, be looking at perhaps a year or two of recessionary quarters. That initial assumption of no free-market solution is huge, however. Since solvency isn't an issue, almost all options are on the table with respect to your specific mortgage debt question. But, there are other factors in the business cycle dictating a recession at some point (an artificially extend growth cycle), with the mortgage overvaluation serving as a catalyst. On the flip side, it really takes monetary policy with the force of America's wealth behind it at the federal level to directly offset recessions *in the short term*, especially global recessions, and the trends have been all towards recession in the broader macroeconomic arena. Again, with the manufacturing segment finally showing decline, the trend is all but irrefutable.
Whether you back the plan or not, the question is really better understood along ideological grounds rather than as a question of defining alternatives. Again, an eventual free-market solution would be reached regarding the specific question of lenders and liquidity, but only the wealth of America itself can attempt to offset the recession in the short-term...the here, and now.
Whether the government should act to intervene, on any number of sticking points, is an entirely different question. It all comes down to ideology and the relative level of comfort as regards an historical perspective on recessionary trends. Honestly? As a huge generalization, you might or might not notice, on a daily basis, the recession as meaningfully impacting upon your everyday life.
edit: My opinion, obviously
Edited by Michael Myers on 01 October 2008 at 12:55pm
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Emery Calame Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 16 April 2004 Location: United States Posts: 5773
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 12:55pm | IP Logged | 6
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Here's the issue I have with that, Emery: Most of those bad mortgages are a result of bad decision-making. Too many people bought more house than they could truly afford. Or they entered into mortgages (usually adjustable rate loans) that were simply unwise.
Sure but I thought that it was now unpatriotic and irresponsible(possibly even suicidally insane) to worry about any personal responsibility. We supposedly have to "act quickly and radically" without time to plan and think or it means insufficicient avaiable financing for small businesses or the middle which means less money for crap which means less demand for crap which means lay offs for the people who producemarket and transport and sell crap and a spiral of economic contraction. We are off the map right now and apparently do not have the luxury of punishing the wicked or the negeligent.
Personally, to me the Paulson bailout sounded an awful lot like a scam taking advantage of the panic.
I do think that the predatory lenders were doing pretty much what they were explicitly ordered to do by Congress to make financing a home supposedly easier for the lower middle class (tyring to manipulate the market). This drove housing prices up as the market had more buyers competing over limited product. That drove construction up until there was more product than market for it which drove the value of the product down which made lots of the loans a huge loss for the people still stuck paying them.
There were also speculators buying houses with the intention of selling them for more than they paid (which would let them pay off their own loans) and when the value of homes dropped one "wave" of them suddenly got stuck with low value houses and couldn't affors to pay their higher value high interest loans.
The mark for market asset valuation from Sarbanes Oxley (a regulatory response to Enron vastly inflating their own value) makes it harder to recover from as well. It's hard to sell a debt when it's value keeps dropping invalue. Worse when you establish your own worth from owned debts as assets by their current value on the market you can quickly find yourself suddenly without enough assets to justify borrowing money or to even back what you've lent out.
Edited by Emery Calame on 01 October 2008 at 1:02pm
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Mike O'Brien Byrne Robotics Member
Official JB Historian
Joined: 18 April 2004 Location: United States Posts: 10927
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 1:12pm | IP Logged | 7
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Snippity snap.
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Kevin Brown Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 31 May 2005 Location: United States Posts: 9126
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 1:33pm | IP Logged | 8
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Someone else posted this at another forum, but it's still a great read: http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/make_believe_mav erick_the_real_john_mccain
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Michael Retour Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 27 May 2006 Posts: 932
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 4:20pm | IP Logged | 9
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Jodi the situation today is worse than the depression of the 1930s. The media and others just don't say so. Just because MSNBC wasn't there when the Red Sea parted doesn't mean it didn't part. The so-called experts on economics have been proven wrong. Bernanke is just some crazy monetarist nut. He has failed. If the so-called experts knew anything like this collapse was brewing why didn't they act? Because they didn't know! They were telling everyone to hop in the water. They were all caught with their pants down and now are scrambling like chickens with their heads cut off to bully retiring GOPers to sign onto the failed bailout.
Millions dying daily from starvation and that's called a "correction" not something worse than a depression? Those dying are dying directly because of a collapsed economic system imposed on them and one they don't want either.
When you don't even have the guts to enforce the regulation in place why even talk about such nonsense as "smart regulation"? If there was this fountain of wisdom in government where are the laws?
If any of the "wise men" knew anything about banking etc. we would not be in this mess.
This is not a business cycle. It's the end of America leading the world. That is over. We're not leading the world out of this mess. Forget it. The world has weighed in. Bush is ridiculed. Laughed at. I am talking about our allies, close allies. We are the largest debtor nation on Earth with the arrogance to call ourselves the "greatest nation on the planet" when we can't even pay for what we consume and have to beg for money from those poorer than we are. It's pathetic.
Incidentally, the values of stocks are artificially manipulated and have been for years. You have money pouring into markets like crazy. A bucket brigade trying to put out a fire with 'Helicopter' Ben Bernanke (from the Fed) leading the way, as Greenspan did before him. Let the Fed lower rates to zero and see if that helps.
I've heard that over the course of the past two days $683 billion was injected into the markets so the markets got their $700 billion. I could be wrong on the precise amount but I am close.
People can't talk about a worst case scenario. They don't know what they're talking about.
Millions dying daily of starvation isn't bad enough. It is just part of the business cycle? Americans don't really understand how other nations are granted loans but ask someone from another nation about IMF conditionalities and how wonderfully they've worked as they starve to death. Tell those dying from the lack of water it isn't a depression.
I am not shocked that some can't put two and two together, due to the state of American education, and realize that the deaths are because of economics.
Among other things Stein said this:
"Second, according to what I hear from my betters in the world of
finance, the most serious problems are not with the bundles of subprime
mortgages themselves — a large but not lethal quantum as far as I can
tell — but with derivatives contracts tied to subprime and other dicey
debt. These contracts are superficially an attempt to 'insure' against
risks of default, hence the name 'credit-default swaps.'
In fact, they are an immense wager — which anyone with lots of money or
borrowing ability can enter — about how mortgage-backed bonds,
leveraged loan bonds, student loan bonds, credit card bonds and the like will perform. "These wagers entail amounts many times larger than the total of
subprime loans. In fact, there are roughly $62 trillion in
credit-default swap derivatives out there, compared with about $1
trillion of subprime mortgages. These derivatives are 'weapons of
financial mass destruction,' in the prophetic words of Warren E. Buffett. (Apparently believing that the worst is over, at least for one big investment bank, Mr. Buffett is now investing in Goldman Sachs.) "The
swaps market has been unregulated. It has been just a lot of people
making bets with one another. Some of them made incredibly fortunate
payoff wagers against the mortgage bonds, using credit-default swaps as
their wagering vehicle. I am not sure who the big winners are, but they
are out there, and the gains were big enough to cripple the part of
Wall Street on the losing side of the bets. "But
let’s get back to the man of the hour. Why didn’t Mr. Paulson, the
Treasury secretary, see it? He was once the head of Goldman Sachs, an
immense player in the swaps world. Didn’t people at Treasury have a
clue? If they didn’t, what was going on in their heads? If they did,
why didn’t they do something about it a year ago, when saving the world
would have been a lot cheaper?" A casino gone mad with the guys dealing the cards even crazier than the ones playing. I don't agree with all Stein said in the NY Times but he did make the point where was Treasury? Paulson? They were trying to make sure this would not explode in their faces as it has.
Both presidential candidates backing a now 400 page bill. Good luck with that one succeeding. They might get it to pass but as far as it addressing the problems forget it.
"The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is already investigating 26
large financial corporations as well as 1,400 smaller companies and
private citizens for possible fraud." So, they were screwing us and knew it. Bail them out? Send them to prison where they belong.
"This, perhaps, will surprise you, but traditional banking – collecting retail
deposits and making loans to ordinary customers – is barely profitable.
Compared with the potential gains from a day at the currency-swap races, or
a night in the derivatives casino, current accounts are cold potatoes. That
is why bonus-hungry executives, at what we used to think of as boring banks,
were so keen to spin the red-hot wheel of fortune." That's from the London Telegraph.
Bush and the rest of these clowns were telling us, a few weeks back, all was well. What happened?
No one here knows what the bottom of this is. They can read liver entrails all they like but it is all a guess. No proposal from the government thus far will do a thing to solve the worldwide crisis.
Watch and see.
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Christopher Alan Miller Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 26 October 2006 Location: United States Posts: 2787
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 4:35pm | IP Logged | 10
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With millions dying daily from starvation the human race will be extinct in a few decades so why worry about it.
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Michael Retour Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 27 May 2006 Posts: 932
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 4:56pm | IP Logged | 11
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Chris,
Are you one of those Moral Majority types?
I hope nothing like starvation ever reaches your family but some people can remember escaping Nazi Germany and starving while doing so.
I have plenty of friends from Africa and your remarks, aside from being the typical "ugly American", are offensive.
You don't care about it. Fine.
Take care, Mike
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Christopher Alan Miller Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 26 October 2006 Location: United States Posts: 2787
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| Posted: 01 October 2008 at 5:02pm | IP Logged | 12
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I'm making fun of you not starving people. No moral majoroty either, I'm an atheist.
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