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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8965
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| Posted: 07 September 2024 at 12:52pm | IP Logged | 1
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Current polling shows Harris ahead in the national polls by 3.1%, which is .1% outside of the margin of error.
Last election, I seem to recall that Biden never lead in any poll in Georgia (which he won) and it was considered a toss up in NC (which he lost).
Any way, right now, I think Harris is going to win all the states Biden won in 2020, with the exception of Georgia. That'll give her 290.
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Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 12724
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 1:22pm | IP Logged | 2
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NYT/Sienna puts Trump ahead overall by 1%. This election is going remains a nail-biter.
(What a weird way we have to elect the President. Florida is "comfortably," as observers and pundits would put it, siding with Trump, 49.5% of voters. The 44% who vote for Harris are out of luck. Some 4.3 million voters, effectively disenfranchised. Same goes for Republican voters in, for example, Oregon: about a million whose vote is irrelevant. Why is our nation comfortable with this?)
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 133369
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 1:31pm | IP Logged | 3
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Like the Second Amendment, the Electoral College is a leftover from a more primitive time. Yet it is nearly impossible to imagine the Nation ever getting rid of either. Too many people have a vested interest in preserving them.
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Robert Bradley
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 20 September 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 4885
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 3:24pm | IP Logged | 4
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fivethirtyeight.com, which averagea all of the polls has Harris up by 3.1 points, and has been holding around there for about a month. Obviously, the debate will be important because 3% is still pretty close.
Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are all still very close.
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Daniel Gillotte
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 11 October 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 2663
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 3:27pm | IP Logged | 5
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Texas, too, really. ALL the populous cities about 5.25 million voters go Democratic but their votes don't matter due to the 5.9 million Republicans voters.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 3:36pm | IP Logged | 6
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fivethirtyeight.com, which averagea all of the polls has Harris up by 3.1 points, and has been holding around there for about a month. Obviously, the debate will be important because 3% is still pretty close.••• It’s crazy to me that a nation as diverse as ours could be so closely divided.
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Robert Bradley
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Joined: 20 September 2006
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 3:42pm | IP Logged | 7
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Remember, Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 4 million votes and still lost because she lost the "rust belt" voting.
The gift of the Electoral College is that results of the same 8 to 10 states will decide any close election now.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 4:28pm | IP Logged | 8
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A guy I used to know complained bitterly that Bush (W) had “stolen” the election via shenanigans in Florida. In those days, I considered myself a Republican, and pointed out that my vote had been “stolen” by the Electoral College, since Connecticut always went blue. One man, one vote? Not in America!
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Robert Bradley
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 20 September 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 4885
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 5:14pm | IP Logged | 9
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The system has led to disputed results in 1800, 1824, 1876, 1960, 2000, and 2020.
That's far too often.
Edited by Robert Bradley on 08 September 2024 at 5:17pm
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Jason Czeskleba
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Joined: 30 April 2004
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 8:30pm | IP Logged | 10
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Robert, it doesn't change your overall point, but the Electoral College system is not what led to a disputed result in 2020. Rather, it was one candidate's narcissism and an entire political party's willingness to indulge it.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
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| Posted: 08 September 2024 at 10:21pm | IP Logged | 11
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Harris and Trumf being so close in the polls tells us much about how messed up this country really is. There’s always been a left/right skew, but never before have we seen the right feeling so disenfranchised that they would vote for someone as vile as Trumf. Even his followers compartmentalizing his evils is not enough to explain how they can keep coming back to him. It’s just selfish people who will accept ANYTHING so long as they don’t have to compromise.
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8965
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| Posted: 09 September 2024 at 2:16pm | IP Logged | 12
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2020 was only disputed by one individual (whose cult then followed). 2020 was definitely not in dispute as to who won in any way, shape, or form.
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