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James Reese
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 18 July 2015
Location: United States
Posts: 434
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| Posted: 24 November 2015 at 9:49am | IP Logged | 1
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Trump has announced he will most likely make an independent bid, if he does not get the Republican nod.
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I just read up on this. He signed the loyalty pledge on September 3rd agreeing not to run as an independent. Then said this in an interview with ABC earlier this week.
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STEPHANOPOULOS: But you’re open…
TRUMP: — in Alabama…
STEPHANOPOULOS: — to an Independent run?
TRUMP: Well, I’m going to have to see what happens. I will see what happens. I have to be treated fairly. You know, when I did this, I said I have to be treated fairly. If I’m treated fairly, I’m fine. All I want to do is a level playing field. And I think people are surprised that, you know, they’re politicians and they’ve been doing this stuff all their lives. I haven’t. I’ve been a job producer. I’ve done great, you know, things. I’ve done fabulous developments all over the world and I’ve made a lot of money. And that’s the kind of thinking we need in office. That’s the kind of thinking we need in Washington.
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So basically I take it that if he wins the delegates to win the nomination and then they screw him at the Convention, he'll run as an Independent, but I have no idea what Trump considers being "treated fairly" so I could be off the mark.
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Jason Czeskleba
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Posts: 4548
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| Posted: 24 November 2015 at 12:18pm | IP Logged | 2
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I wouldn't put it past him to run as an independent. As James noted, he has always made his adherence to the loyalty pledge contingent upon being "treated fairly." That's a vague enough criteria that he can easily contrive some manner in which to claim he's been treated unfairly when he doesn't get the nomination.
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Stephen Robinson
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
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| Posted: 24 November 2015 at 1:58pm | IP Logged | 3
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JASON: Trump is not going to be the Republican nominee. He currently has
about 30% in a field of more than a dozen candidates. That means 70% of
those being polled do not like him.
SER: That is the GOP best case scenario, but it avoids the very clear
message from the base that the GOP wants an "outsider" and not an
"establishment politician." The polling has been consistent in that message
for months -- Trump out in front, then Carson, then Cruz (who is about as
"outsider" as a sitting Senator can be). Note also that *Cruz* has risen in
the polls more significantly than Bush -- who has dropped like a dead
weight -- and even Rubio. Walker and Jindal weren't polling high enough to
alter the dial too much but their dropping out didn't shift the needle in the
establishment's favor.The potential game changer is Carson's support. He's
the strong second, so if he dropped out and all of his supports shifted to
Rubio, he can start on his convention speech. But Trump is the second
choice for many Carson supporters in the key state of South Carolina. Rubio
could afford to lose SC and Iowa (unlikely Carson will drop out prior to that)
but NH and Florida would be must-wins if he wants to remain competitive.
If I were a GOP insider, I'd be having serious conversations with Bush. The evidence indicates that there is no real path for him. He's viewed as not
conservative enough by many in the base (especially in SC) and his family
connections puts him firmly in the "establishment" category. After
"establishment" candidates like McCain and Romney went on to lose big, I
don't see how Bush can convince primary voters to back him. If he dropped
out -- for the good of the party -- and endorsed Rubio like *now*, there's a
chance that Rubio could win NH (narrowly, as I think Trump is still ahead
there) and Florida, but unless the other Republican candidates start
dropping out, Trump could sweep the early states. A Rubio nomination, I
think, requires the appearance of an organic victory rather than party
bosses saying "He's our guy. Let's stop Trump!" That will alienate Trump
(and Carson) voters. They won't vote for Clinton in any scenario, but they
might stay home or worse for the GOP back a third-party candidate,
because as James said, the loyalty pledge was contingent on being "treated
fairly." The party appearing to band together to hobble the clear front
runner wouldn't qualify either to Trump or his supporters.
Edited by Stephen Robinson on 24 November 2015 at 1:59pm
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James Reese
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 18 July 2015
Location: United States
Posts: 434
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| Posted: 24 November 2015 at 2:02pm | IP Logged | 4
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The potential game changer is Carson's support. He's
the strong second, so if he dropped out and all of his supports shifted to
Rubio, he can start on his convention speech.
***
Latest Iowa polls have Carson in 4th place. He lost 10% points all of which went to Cruz.
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James Reese
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 18 July 2015
Location: United States
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| Posted: 24 November 2015 at 2:18pm | IP Logged | 5
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After "establishment" candidates like McCain and Romney went on to lose big...
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Those elections had a different element to them than what we are likely (in my opinion) to see this time. The African American vote in states like Ohio was huge for Obama, which made a big difference in swing or "purple" states. Can Clinton get the same turnout in that community? There's a lot of variables that are going to shake out in the 50 weeks (like who is going to nominated in Cleveland), it should be interesting.
Edited by James Reese on 24 November 2015 at 2:21pm
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Kevin Hagerman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 15 April 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 17997
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| Posted: 25 November 2015 at 5:43am | IP Logged | 6
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As James noted, he has always made his adherence to the loyalty pledge contingent upon being "treated fairly." -- From the start it was pretty clear "treated fairly" meant "gimme the nomination". A Trump independent run in an election with another polarizing figure in Hillary Clinton could be very interesting... if it weren't for the fact we're trying to figure out which one of these chuckleheads should be president. I've gotta say Ben Carson's staying power, which may finally be waning, is astounding. No experience, clearly not meant for politics, and dull as a post. Second place for months.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
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| Posted: 25 November 2015 at 5:49am | IP Logged | 7
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I've gotta say Ben Carson's staying power, which may finally be waning, is astounding. No experience, clearly not meant for politics, and dull as a post. Second place for months.•• Had lunch with friends yesterday, and naturally the topic of our rather pathetic roster of candidates came up. Someone expressed dismay that Carson's supporters, when confronted with his appalling lack of knowledge on foreign affairs, claimed that he would surround himself with a staff of top advisors. "This is the guy with his finger on The Button," said one friend. "Yes," I said. "One finger on the button and the other on speed dial."
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Marcio Ferreira
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 20 September 2008
Location: Brazil
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| Posted: 25 November 2015 at 7:38am | IP Logged | 8
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"This is the guy with his finger on The Button," said one friend. "Yes," I said. "One finger on the button and the other on speed dial." +++ LMAO. Good one! (And true, which is sad).
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Brian Floyd
Byrne Robotics Member
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| Posted: 25 November 2015 at 9:42am | IP Logged | 9
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If Trump is elected, I give it 6 months before he's
either gotten us involved in a war due to his mouth or
he's impeached.
The big problem is that Trump clearly doesn't seem to
know or understand just what exactly the President
does or what their limits as far as power is concerned
are.
Carson is a just a pile of boring who seems to be
crazy.
Sadly, there are no Republican candidates that I'd
even consider electing. But that's par for the course.
I'm not a Democrat (I'm a moderate independent,
meaning I don't vote based on parties), but so far
I've voted that way in every Presidential election
aside from Obama's first term (I didn't vote in that
one). The Republicans seem to run either a nut job or
a liar....or both (Romney was an out of touch snake
oil salesman and his running made was a liar)....and
Bob Dole is the only Republican candidate I actually
liked, but I felt Bill Clinton deserved a second term.
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Jeremy Simington
Byrne Robotics Member
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Location: United States
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| Posted: 25 November 2015 at 11:42am | IP Logged | 10
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JOHN BYRNE: Carson's supporters, when confronted with his appalling lack of knowledge on foreign affairs, claimed that he would surround himself with a staff of top advisors.
The bigger problem is that Carson is a religious fanatic. It makes no matter how competent his advisors are or what they tell him. He'll pray on it (maybe sans hair dryer) and do whatever he wants under the guise of, "God told me to do this," because, funny thing, God's will always seems to agree with whatever fanatics say it is. This is a guy who makes George W. Bush look like a Christmas/Easter-only Christian.
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Stephen Robinson
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
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| Posted: 25 November 2015 at 1:11pm | IP Logged | 11
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Carson's lack of knowledge of foreign affairs demonstrates how we've dialed
down citizenship in the U.S. By that, I mean, I don't think Carson should know
more in order to be president but in order to function in society. It's not like
he's running for president of MARVEL and doesn't know who co-created
Spider-Man or the FF with Stan Lee. But way too many Americans don't know
the basics of why we're fighting -- and have been fighting -- an almost
decades-long war in the Middle East. Or even the sources and causes of
terrorism abroad.
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Joe Zhang
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
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| Posted: 25 November 2015 at 4:38pm | IP Logged | 12
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"Carson is a just a pile of boring who seems to be
crazy."
Or rather, a box full of crazy who tries to appear sedate.
Edited by Joe Zhang on 25 November 2015 at 4:38pm
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Topic Closed)
