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John Wickett
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 2:27pm | IP Logged | 1  

"As someone who is not american, deals in matter of justice are something very shocking to me: it seems it is better to say you are guilty, even if you're innocent"

Unfortunately, we know this happens sometimes. Its estimated that the wrongful conviction rate is somewhere between 2% and 10%.  


The number of innocent people who are incarcerated for serious crimes is believed to be at the low end of these estimates.  Many wrongful convictions arise from false confessions in cases with low stakes (a defendant confesses to avoid doing any jail time).

There is even a special type of guilty plea, called an Alford plea, wherein a defendant can plead guilty while maintaining a claim of actual innocence.  In those cases, a defendant is asserting exactly what you suggested- that he is pleading guilty to mitigate the risks he would face by going to trial and being convicted.  
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Michael Roberts
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 4:01pm | IP Logged | 2  

The details of the deal can be sealed and he can spin it however he wants and his people will eat it up.

———-

A guilty plea is a guilty plea. Why would it be sealed? Generally sealed plea agreements are for folks who are cooperating on another case. The purpose is to protect a witness from being discovered and retaliated against. You don’t get a sealed plea agreement just because. 
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John Byrne
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 4:29pm | IP Logged | 3  

I am of the opinion that all of this will boil down to who wins the 2024 election. If Trump wins, and I think he has an excellent chance, then it will be hell to pay for his enemies. If he loses? I am not so sure what would happen.

•••

He will not admit the loss, and his followers will replay Jan 6, this time at the White House.

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John Wickett
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 4:42pm | IP Logged | 4  

"You don’t get a sealed plea agreement just because."

True.  And I don't see how he would benefit from a sealed plea agreement.  The existence of an agreement, by definition means that he pleaded guilty to something, so the public would at least know that, and the likelihood of the remaining details being leaked at some point is high.  I think Trump has two priorities: avoid jail time, and control the narrative.  I think he would make a deal if he perceived it as the right deal.  

Hypothetical Example:  DOJ drops counts 32 and 34-37, and consolidates counts 1-31 into a single count.  Trump pleads guilty to Willful Retention of National Defense Information and Withholding a Document or Record.  He pays the maximum fine, but does no jail time.

Then the narrative is "I guess technically I did something wrong, but what I did was no different from what Crooked Hillary or Joe Biden did.  I was unfairly and selectively prosecuted in order to influence the 2024 election, which proves the DOJ is politicized against conservatives."  Also: "in my opinion I didn't do anything wrong, because I had the authority to declassify the documents at any time, but a $1M fine is nothing to Trump, so I paid it to get this out of the way so we can focus on what's really important- making America great again." The MAGA crowd would eat that up.

If he can't bargain his way out of jail time, then I agree with those who believe Trump is too arrogant/stubborn/stupid to accept a deal, and we will actually see this go to trial.


Edited by John Wickett on 12 June 2023 at 4:47pm
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Mark Waldman
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 5:54pm | IP Logged | 5  

Trump has done a great job of making it that any time Democrats win, it's fake. Only a moron would believe every election is only fair if it goes in your favor, but we know how that goes. It's fascinating that institutions that are typically conservative, like the police and military, side with a party that is more than happy to get them killed. Just like any woman or person of color who sides with GOP, against your own self interest. 

Up is down, down is up and more and more violence will occur because too little is being done to stop it. Curious how one could consider themselves patriotic putting one man over their country. Attacking the FBI, DOJ, law itself. I try to follow the news less and less, it is important to be informed but unhealthy to allow so much of this into your day to day life. I'll make whatever impact one person can at the polls.
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Charles Valderrama
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 6:01pm | IP Logged | 6  

Today, he’s promising revenge on his political opponents... he's constantly proving how unstable he is... I don't know how that translates into strong leadership.

This is political THEATER... but I can't imagine this nonsense will endear him to the strong support he needs to win an election. The MAGA crowd is formitable, but the rest of the country just might've learned something by now. (Keeping my fingers crossed.)

-C!


Edited by Charles Valderrama on 12 June 2023 at 6:01pm
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John Byrne
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 6:07pm | IP Logged | 7  

Trumf presents a how his followers wish they could be. He is power to those who feel powerless. Or are Lindsey Graham.
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Michael Roberts
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 6:16pm | IP Logged | 8  

The ridiculous thing is, it’s likely that if he had just returned the documents, this would have gone nowhere, like the whatboutism Republicans try to pull with Clinton. Note Trump wasn’t charged for possessing the documents he returned. 
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ron bailey
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 6:28pm | IP Logged | 9  

He was hellbent on keeping those documents because, like anything else he does, it's about transactionism. If he can't be President, he wanted to leverage every advantage he had to having been President. Why leave empty handed? His motivations for those documents was no different than Jared Kushner's intentions for his current Middle East dealings. 
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James Johnson
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 6:43pm | IP Logged | 10  

Just in case we all forget.....

Let's remember how we got to this point.

On November 4th, 2008, we elected a black man (or half black or half white) who has "Hussein" as his middle name as the 44th Commander in Chief. 

He was re-elected in 2012.

There was/is a segment of the population and in congress that lost their fucking minds.

This is why we have an asshole stealing classified documents.

EDIT - Had his middle name wrong


Edited by James Johnson on 12 June 2023 at 6:55pm
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John Byrne
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 7:05pm | IP Logged | 11  

Sadly, Trumf IS a major part of the “legacy” of Obama. His election was a dagger thru the hearts of many right wing conservatives, who thought the closest they’d ever get to a Black president was Morgan Freeman in a bad movie.

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John Wickett
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Posted: 12 June 2023 at 7:20pm | IP Logged | 12  

 "...if he had just returned the documents, this would have gone nowhere"

Its outrageous.

There are a number of ways this could have been avoided.  If he had actually declassified the documents, he could have just had his staff make copies of the ones he wanted before he left office.  But Trump thinks he is above the law.

I don't even think its transactional, as Ron suggests, because if he was thinking this through, he would have taken one of the easy outs that were available to him, to avoid this.  He just thinks he's entitled to the documents because he was President, and he wants them.  

On Page 16 of the indictment, there is a transcript of a conversation between Trump, one of his staffers, and someone doing research for a book.  Here is part of the exchange, that takes place AFTER he's shown the classified military documents to the author:

Trump:  See, as President I could have declassified it.
Staffer: Yeah. (laughter)
Trump: Now I can't, you know, but this is still a secret.
Staffer: Yeah. (laughter)  Now we have a problem.
Trump: Isn't that interesting?

He clearly knows he is breaking the law, but they're laughing about this.  He clearly doesn't think there will be any consequence.  




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